The Real Winner in Gaza Last Week: Iran

In case you haven’t been paying attention to the news lately, Palestinians and Israelis don’t get along very well. In the eight days of fighting between November 16^th and 24^th, an estimated 160 or so Palestinians and 6 Israelis were killed. Small skirmishes like these aren’t meant to garner large-scale strategic effects, but the most recent spat between Israel and Hamas/Gaza did help out one country in the region: Iran. Ok, it was hardly a game-changer for Iran either, but Hamas’ latest rocket attack against Israel—enabled largely by new Fajr-5 rockets imported from Iran—is indicative of Iran’s broader strategic thinking in the region.

Iran’s military and economic support for Hamas is motivated by two key calculations.

Iranian Nuclear Weapons: Why There Won't Be an Arms Race

It’s not hard to find bad takes on what needs to be done about Iran’s nuclear program. Like most complicated political issues, coming up with answers is time consuming and intellectually taxing. On that point, a recent Washington Post column by Henry Kissinger elucidates the conventional thinking of one important—yet woefully misbegotten—viewpoint on the Iranian nuclear arms program: the Middle East nuclear arms race theory (MENART).

Kissinger describes three levels of weaponization: 1. delivery vehicle; 2. capacity to enrich uranium; and 3. development of warheads. He contends that drawing a red line at the third level, Obama’s position, cannot succeed because once a state is able to produce highly enriched uranium (HEU), the hardest part, it is a short leap to warhead development. Thus, the line ought to be drawn at HEU enrichment.

Fine. If you want to keep Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, that’s probably right; however, stopping nuclear weaponization is only one part of the process.

Far more important is the rationale for why Iran would want a nuclear weapon and, for the purposes of this brief blog, what the effects of an Iranian nuclear weapon will be.

The Sources of American Exceptionalism

If you do not believe that the United States is an exceptional nation, then you can still go on to lead a very productive, fulfilling life. Promotions, opportunities to show initiative, and the respect of your peers are still attainable goals. This is not true, however, if you aspire to have a career as a United States politician. Presidential elections always at some point have a who-thinks-America-is-more-exceptional debate, particularly on the topic of foreign policy.

America is indeed an exceptional nation; it was the world’s first modern democracy and is still a model liberal society. Having said that, the conventional thinking about America’s exceptional character—capitalism, individualism, pluralism, rags-to-riches opportunism, etc.—misses some important inputs that have created the exceptional nation we all love. America is exceptional for reasons other than just its political institutions and ideology. Two important, often overlooked, factors have been instrumental in the United States’ ability to thrive.

Dear Obama, About Israel and The Palestinians…

Last Wednesday, Marc Lynch blogged about the foreign policy issues that deserved increased attention in Obama’s second administration. In the lineup, as usual, is the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.He wrote, “the new administration should try to take advantage of the reorientation of Hamas toward Qatar, and work with Egypt to make a serious push to finally reconstitute a representative and legitimate Palestinian negotiating partner. It should also do what it can to encourage the renewal of a peace camp in the upcoming Israeli election. Those two steps would at least set the stage for a possible return to peace talks, though I don't think anyone's optimistic.”

Why Your Congressman Has More Character Than Mother Theresa

Why don’t people like politicians? Is it because they’re bad people? Is it because good people can’t make it to the top? It’s hard to say exactly why, but there is no disputing the fact that Americans don’t think particularly highly of their elected officials. Filibusters have dramatically spiked under president Obama and public vitriol is as vitriolic as it has ever been. I posit three causes of this problem and three possible reasons to be optimistic.

Hurricanes and Politics

Hurricane Sandy’s mad dash towards the east coast of the United States—the country’s most valuable real estate—is a good reminder of the unpredictability of international events. Rightly or wrongly, presidents, department secretaries, ranking members of congress, and other important people frequently get blamed for a lot of what goes wrong in this country and, quite often, for what goes wrong outside of it. It varies from case to case as to just how much blame can be placed on individual leaders; as Kanye West has argued, even the effects of hurricanes can be blamed on important political officials, but without question, the mere arrival of a destructive hurricane, while potentially disastrous, is certainly no one’s fault.

But why is it that so many other sticky things which are very difficult to affect (such as unemployment, domestic political disputes abroad like the Arab spring or, even, post-hurricane disaster relief) are blamed on key political leaders? Why aren’t voters more sympathetic to the difficulties of running a highly complex organization like a country? Perhaps the better question is, why would anyone willingly choose a line of work for which there is very little praise when things go well, a never ending supply of vitriol when things go wrong, and the knowledge going in that you could climb the Matterhorn barefoot in January and 50% of the country would still ask why you didn’t surmount Everest?

America's New York Yankees Foreign Policy

Watching the Yankees lose in embarrassing fashion to the Detroit Tigers last week made me realize something: Americans are a lot like Yankee fans. The Yankee fan is unique in that he thinks, starting from the day pitchers and catchers report in February, that it is destiny that the Yankees will win the World Series every single year. The only thing that could possibly stop the Bronx Bombers from laying waste to the major leagues come October is bad leadership, lack of focus, no heart, or something. Usually they’re just really angry at the world. Lost on all Yankee fans is the notion that the other teams are also full of young men who were once young boys that dreamed of playing in the major leagues and when they finally make it to the big stage, they too enjoy winning and try their hardest to do so.