The Real Winner in Gaza Last Week: Iran

In case you haven’t been paying attention to the news lately, Palestinians and Israelis don’t get along very well. In the eight days of fighting between November 16^th and 24^th, an estimated 160 or so Palestinians and 6 Israelis were killed. Small skirmishes like these aren’t meant to garner large-scale strategic effects, but the most recent spat between Israel and Hamas/Gaza did help out one country in the region: Iran. Ok, it was hardly a game-changer for Iran either, but Hamas’ latest rocket attack against Israel—enabled largely by new Fajr-5 rockets imported from Iran—is indicative of Iran’s broader strategic thinking in the region.

Iran’s military and economic support for Hamas is motivated by two key calculations.

First, the clerical regime’s ability to portray itself as a vanguard in the Muslim world is crucial for maintaining positive momentum. The government in Iran envisions itself as the leading Islamic state in the Middle East and so is keen to oppose regimes that challenge its aspirant regional hegemony. Hamas, then, is a natural ally given its antipathy for Israel. There is a sense of solidarity between the two Muslim regimes, despite their sectarian differences, in the struggle to ward off the Israelis who are, obviously, less than sanguine about Sharia law.

Second, the most recent scuffle between Hamas and Israel provided a distraction from what had been the key military issue in the region – Iran’s nuclear weapons program. It was a rather brief pause—only eight days or so—but it provided a key insight into Iran’s strategic aim in Gaza: distract Israel and the United States.

If this is Iran’s strategy in Gaza, then it is acting just how structural realists predict any state in Iran’s position would: balance against local threats by the best means available. Seen in this light, what the United States calls “support for terrorist organizations,” Iranian officials consider blood-letting a hostile neighbor. Since Iran would not fare well in a conventional engagement against Israel, it makes sense to take it down notch. Rather than defeating Israel outright, Iran is fully capable of maintaining its sovereignty and territoriality by simply exasperating Israel.

Thus, Hamas enjoys the eros love of the Iranians. But when it comes down to it, Hamas is most valuable to the Iranians as a distraction, as an ally of convenience. Israel, like any country, has an eye of Sauron problem: it’s hard to pay close attention to more than one place at a time. Iran knows this and picks its allies accordingly. I’d say that’s quite rational.